Budget Blog

Few April Surprises as Revenues Stabilize

By Brian Sigritz posted 28 days ago

  

Early indications are most states saw revenues near forecasted levels in April (April represents the largest month for tax collections for income tax states due to the tax filing deadline). As expected, the majority of states have seen modest increases or small declines in their April tax collections compared to April 2023. Similarly, revenue gains through the first ten months of the fiscal year (July 2023 through April 2024) have been minimal. Fiscal 2024 will likely mark the second consecutive year of relatively flat growth in tax collections following unprecedented double-digit gains in both fiscal 2021 and fiscal 2022. Reasons for the relatively flat revenue growth include the impact of recently enacted tax cuts, modest economic growth, and lower inflation. Although revenue growth has slowed for states, overall totals remain at or near record highs.

A return to more “normal” fiscal conditions was anticipated by states as they enacted their fiscal 2024 budgets. Following April tax collections, most states are reporting revenues continue to be on target or slightly above forecast for fiscal 2024 (states’ performance compared to forecast can depend on the frequency of forecasts and other factors). While some states have seen monthly fluctuations in revenue totals due to differences in the number of processing days, behavioral responses to tax changes, and higher tax refunds, after April the majority of states expect a surplus (collections exceeding forecast) for fiscal 2024. Fiscal 2024’s stable revenue performance will help guide states as they work to finalize their fiscal 2025 budgets.


Resources

Below is a compilation of recent press articles detailing states’ April revenue collections. In addition, please visit NASBO’s website for links to updated state revenue forecasts

Federal Government – Tax revenue jumps 22% in April, but U.S. deficit still looms large (May 10)

Arizona Tax revenues dip in April after months of steady growth (May 22)

Arkansas Arkansas’ year-to-date tax revenue up 1.4%, April revenue down 0.7% (May 2)

California Lagging revenue continues to drive California budget deficit as deadline nears (May 2)

Connecticut CT reports higher April income tax revenue, projects increased budget surplus (May 1)

Delaware Delaware projects revenue growth ahead of budget talks (May 21)

Georgia State tax revenues fall again (May 10)

Idaho - As Idaho revenues fall short, hopes for another big budget surplus dwindle (June 4)

Illinois Democrats head into final stretch of session with revenues on track (May 6)

Indiana Indiana tax changes drive General Fund expectation miss (May 10)

Kansas Kansas total tax collections up for second straight month (May 2)

Kentucky General Fund sees second-highest month in state history (May 12)

Louisiana Louisiana lawmakers have more money to spend with state revenue projections up (May 9)

Massachusetts April tax report crushes expectations in Mass. (May 3)

Michigan Michigan's corporate income tax revenue swells, sales tax lags as $80B budget eyed (May 17)

Mississippi State revenue is sluggish, but interest from federal COVID-19 money is buoying budget (May 7)

Missouri – Net General Revenue Keeps Trending Up Despite Some Decreases (May 7)

Montana Mont. Revenue Through April Sinks $263M, Dept. Says (May 2)

Nebraska State net tax revenues lower than projected in April (May 15)

Nevada Insurance tax helps Nevada revenue exceed projections (May 9)

New Hampshire Lawmakers hear some good news about state revenues – and reasons for concern (May 10)

New JerseyRevenue forecasts hold steady as budget chair floats sales tax hike (May 14)

North CarolinaTax revenue revised down, slightly, still forecasting ~$1 billion surplus (May 10)

Ohio Ohio’s governor says tax cuts are driving factor in lower-than-expected revenue collections (May 15)

Oklahoma Okla. Revenue Through April Beat Estimates By $285M (May 16)

Pennsylvania State Collects $5.7B in Revenue in April, Exceeding Expectations by 7% (May 2)

Rhode IslandRI revenue projections are up by $57 million as budget negotiations ramp up. (May 11)

South Dakota SD General Revenues Through April Up $24M Over Estimates (May 10)

Tennessee Tennessee April tax collections $74.2M short of budgeted estimates (May 20)

Virginia April General Fund Revenues Remain Ahead of Forecast (May 17)

Washington Capital gains tax receipts in Washington state tumble (May 22)

West VirginiaWest Virginia April tax collections above estimates, below 2023 collections (May 2)

Wisconsin Wisconsin’s budget surplus shrinks slightly under latest estimate (May 22)


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