Budget Blog

FY26 Revenue Remains Stable as Most States Exceed Forecasts

By Brian Sigritz posted 3 hours ago

  
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Despite some variation in year-over-year growth in tax collections, most states with data publicly available ended fiscal 2026 above their most recent official revenue forecast, with many states seeing revenues come in 2-3 percent above forecast. A smaller number came in below their most recent revenue forecast, but in some instances still exceeded the original revenue forecast used in their enacted budget. 

Fiscal 2026 also marked the fourth consecutive year of moderate general fund revenue growth, following record-setting gains in fiscal 2021 and fiscal 2022. Most states saw revenues rise moderately, although overall performance was mixed in scale with total year-over-year revenue growth ranging from small declines to nearly double-digit increases

Examining individual revenue sources, personal income tax collections increased in most states in fiscal 2026, with some states experiencing strong gains from both withholding and non-withholding income. Several states experienced decreases in personal income taxes due in part to recent changes in tax policy. Sales tax collections also generally grew, reflecting continued consumer activity, although a small number of states reported flat or declining collections. Corporate income taxes were considerably more volatile. While some states recorded substantial increases, many reported declines, including several decreases of more than 20 percent.

In discussing their fiscal 2026 year-end results, state officials frequently described their economies and fiscal positions as strong or resilient, citing steady consumer activity, growth in withholding income, and fiscal discipline. Along with ending the year with a revenue surplus, states also highlighted continued strong cash balances and record high rainy day fund levels. Although most states have not yet determined the use of their revenue surplus, some noted the funds would be transferred to reserve accounts or used for future budget priorities, while additional uses included education, infrastructure, and other one-time investments. Officials also emphasized continued uncertainty related to changing trade and federal policies, geopolitical developments, and the volatility of personal and corporate income tax collections. Looking forward, states expect revenues to once again grow at a modest pace in fiscal 2027, with revenues projected to increase 2.5 percent according to NASBO’s Spring 2026 Fiscal Survey of States.

 

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Forty-six states and one territory (Puerto Rico) ended the fiscal year on June 30. New York finished fiscal 2026 on March 31, while Texas will finish the year on August 31 and Alabama, Michigan, American Samoa, the District of Columbia, Guam, and the U.S. Virgin Islands will finish on September 30. Below are samples of revenue totals from states that have published preliminary data for the full fiscal year and descriptions of some of the factors impacting tax collections. Included are data on year-over-year revenue growth, as well as revenue compared to projections.

Arkansas’s gross general revenues for fiscal 2026 were $8.69 billion, an increase of 3.9 percent from fiscal 2025. Net available general revenues totaled $7.15 billion, 7.0 percent higher than last year. For the year, net available revenues were above forecast by 1.0 percent. Revenues in excess of the general revenue budget provided a surplus of $655.0 million. Year-over-year increases included individual income tax collections (7.4 percent) and sales and use tax (3.9 percent), while corporate income tax collections declined slightly. Arkansas’s Finance and Administration Secretary noted that the state experienced especially strong tax collection totals and reserves are at record levels.

California’s total general fund receipts for fiscal 2026 were $258.87 billion, 11.1 percent above fiscal 2025. When looking at individual revenue sources, the personal income tax (21.0 percent), retail sales and use taxes (4.0 percent), and corporation tax (21.6 percent) all increased year-over-year. Fiscal 2026 receipts exceeded estimates contained in the May 2026 revision by approximately 0.4 percent. The state ended fiscal 2026 with a General Fund cash balance of $49.8 billion and $84.5 billion in unused borrowable resources.

Connecticut’s general fund revenues for fiscal 2026 are estimated at $25.15 billion, 3.3 percent above the original budgeted amount and 0.2 percent below the June 2026 estimate. Projections for the income tax, pass-through entity tax, corporation tax, and sales and use tax are all above the June estimate. The state is estimating a reduction in federal grants revenue due largely to a timing shift in receipts that pushed revenue into fiscal 2027. The state’s comptroller noted that while national and economic uncertainties remain, Connecticut is projected to end the year with a general fund surplus of $448.4 million due to its fiscal discipline.

Georgia’s fiscal 2026 net tax revenue totaled $33.75 billion, an increase of $129.5 million, or 0.4 percent, compared to fiscal 2025. The sales and use tax (6.8 percent) and corporate income tax (7.0 percent) increased year-over-year, while the individual income tax decreased (-6.7 percent). Yearly revenue totals were also impacted by the recent motor fuel tax suspension, which began March 20 and remained in effect until June 3.

Idaho’s fiscal 2026 general fund revenues were $5.68 billion, 2.6 percent below fiscal 2025’s level. Individual income taxes (-2.0 percent), sales taxes (-1.7 percent), and corporate income taxes (-7.9 percent) all declined compared to fiscal 2025. Compared to forecast, fiscal 2026 general fund revenues were 3.1 percent above projections. Following year-end statutory transfers and reversions which returned unspent funds to the General Fund, an approximately $250 million cash balance will be transferred to the General Fund for Fiscal Year 2027. The Division of Financial Management Administrator noted the fiscal year-end finish demonstrated both the resilience of Idaho’s economy and the value of conservative budgeting.

Illinois’s total general fund revenue for fiscal 2026 was $56.30 billion, a 4.3 percent increase compared to fiscal 2025. Individual income tax (4.2 percent) and sales tax (2.5 percent) increased compared to fiscal 2025, while the corporate income tax (-3.9 percent) declined. Actual fiscal 2026 total general fund revenues for fiscal 2026 were 0.8 percent above the budgeted amount.

Indiana’s fiscal 2026 total general fund revenues were $23.74 billion, a 6.8 percent increase from fiscal 2025. Year-over-year, sales and use (6.1 percent), individual income (3.7 percent), and corporate income (27.7 percent) all increased from fiscal 2025. Total general fund revenues were 2.5 percent above the December state revenue forecast. The state comptroller noted that in fiscal 2026 the state navigated a cautious revenue forecast in part due to the development of new tariffs, however, Indiana closed fiscal 2026 with $3.99 billion in reserves and a $1.86 billion surplus.

Iowa’s fiscal 2026 general fund receipts totaled $10.17 billion, a decrease of 9.2 percent compared to fiscal 2025. Personal income taxes (-16.4 percent) and corporate income taxes (-21.1 percent) decreased compared to fiscal 2025, while sales/use tax receipts increased (4.0 percent). The 9.2 percent decrease in fiscal 2026 general fund receipts was less than the projected decrease of 9.4 percent.

Kansas’s fiscal 2026 total receipts were $10.10 billion, a 1.2 percent increase from fiscal 2025. Individual income taxes grew (8.1 percent), corporation income taxes decreased (-24.2 percent), and sales and use taxes were flat compared to fiscal 2025. Total receipts in fiscal 2026 were 0.5 percent above the cumulative estimate.

Kentucky’s fiscal 2026 general fund receipts totaled $15.98 billion, exceeding fiscal 2025 total revenue by 1.7 percent. Year-over-year, individual income tax receipts rose (4.6 percent) on the strength of estimated payments and net returns. Sales tax receipts also grew (6.4 percent), with the percentage growth rate increasing in each quarter. Combined corporation income and Limited Liability Entity taxes (LLET) fell (-21.9 percent), largely due to unusually high nonrecurring estimated payments received in fiscal 2025. The fiscal 2026 annual growth rate of 1.7 percent outperformed the official estimate which called for a 1.3 percent decline.

Maine ended fiscal 2026 with approximately a $148 million surplus, the fifth consecutive year the state has had a surplus. After priority transfers are met, Maine law requires dividing the remaining general fund surplus into an 80/20 percent split between the Budget Stabilization Fund and the Highway and Bridge Capital Fund. As a result of the surplus, the state’s Budget Stabilization Fund has returned to its maximum level of 18 percent of the prior year’s general fund revenues.

Minnesota’s fiscal 2026 total revenues were $33.53 billion, $248 million, or 0.7 percent, higher than the February forecast. Individual income taxes (2.8 percent) and general sales taxes (0.2 percent) were above the February forecast, while the corporate franchise tax (-9.5 percent) was below projections.

Mississippi’s fiscal 2026 total general fund revenue collections were $7.73 billion, 1.2 percent greater than fiscal 2025. For the year, sales taxes decreased (-0.4 percent), individual income taxes were flat, and corporate income taxes grew (7.8 percent). Fiscal 2026 total general fund receipts were 2.3 percent above November’s revised revenue estimate.



Missouri’s net general revenue collections for fiscal 2026 were $13.05 billion, a 2.8 percent decrease compared to fiscal 2025. Year-over-year, individual income tax collections decreased (-0.3 percent), sales and use tax collections rose (5.3 percent), and corporate income and corporate franchise tax collections decreased (-23.2 percent).

Nebraska’s fiscal 2026 total net receipts were $6.74 billion, 9.5 percent higher than fiscal 2025 net receipts. For the year, sales and use taxes (13.9 percent) and individual income (20.9 percent) increased, while corporate income decreased (-33.1 percent). Net general fund receipts for fiscal 2026 were 3.3 percent below the forecasted level.

New Hampshire’s fiscal 2026 state revenue totaled $3.82 billion for both the general and education trust funds, $143 million more than fiscal 2025. Of the state’s largest revenue sources, business taxes, room and meals tax, and the real estate transfer tax all increased compared to last year. The state is expected to end the fiscal year with an approximate $182 million surplus.

New York’s state tax receipts totaled $37.2 billion through the first quarter of the state fiscal year 2027 (April-June), $4.0 billion higher than the first quarter of the state fiscal year 2026. Personal income taxes ($1.7 billion), business taxes ($1.9 billion), and sales and use tax collections ($432.4 million) were all above the same period last year. In addition, state tax receipts were $2.4 billion higher than the Division of the Budget estimated in the fiscal 2027 Enacted Budget Financial Plan. The state comptroller noted that higher than projected state tax collections were primarily due to strong growth in business tax collections, however, he expressed caution due to geopolitical conflicts and changing trade policies.

Ohio’s total tax receipts for fiscal 2026 were $30.94 billion, 5.9 percent above fiscal 2025 levels. Sales and use (5.8 percent), personal income (6.4 percent), and commercial activity (3.9 percent) taxes all increased year-over-year. Total tax receipts were 6.1 percent, or $1.8 billion, above estimated levels. The state budget director noted that each of the major tax categories ended fiscal 2026 solidly above forecast, and the state’s financial position has never been stronger.  

Oklahoma’s total revenue for fiscal 2026 was $17.91 billion, 5.9 percent higher than fiscal 2025. For the year, individual income taxes grew (12.5 percent), corporate income taxes decreased (-7.2 percent), and sales and use taxes rose (3.7 percent). The state treasurer stated that steady consumer activity, a recovering manufacturing sector, and continued energy production are providing a strong foundation for the state.

Pennsylvania’s fiscal 2026 general fund collections were $48.9 billion, 2.4 percent above estimate. For the year, sales taxes (1.2 percent), personal income taxes (2.1 percent), and corporation tax collections (3.7 percent) were all above estimate. The revenue secretary noted that throughout the year Pennsylvania had seen strong collections from many of the major revenue sources, including the sales tax and employer withholding tax, demonstrating the commonwealth’s strong financial position.

South Dakota closed fiscal 2026 with an operating surplus of $69 million. Total revenue finished above forecast by $30 million while spending was $39 million below what was budgeted. Sales tax revenue growth accounted for $17 million of the surplus, with sales tax growing 6.6 percent compared to fiscal 2025. Per state law, the $69 million surplus was transferred to the state reserve funds, which now totals $325 million, or 12.7 percent, of the fiscal 2027 budget and will be available for one-time investments in future budget years. The governor said South Dakota’s robust economy is driving steady revenue growth, moving the budget in an even stronger direction.

Tennessee’s total tax revenues through 11 months have increased $1.4 billion, or 6.7 percent, compared to the same period in fiscal 2025; on an accrual basis, June is the eleventh month in fiscal 2026. Year-to-date, sales taxes (4.2 percent), corporate taxes (17.9 percent), and all other taxes (7.4 percent) have increased, while fuel taxes are down (-0.6 percent). Total tax revenues are also 3.7 percent more than the budget estimate. The Department of Finance and Administration Commissioner said that with one month left in the fiscal year, the state is on track to exceed the revenue estimate established for the year, but the state will continue to monitor economic conditions closely.

Virginia’s fiscal 2026 general fund revenues grew 6.7 percent compared to fiscal 2025. Payroll withholding (6.1 percent), non-withholding (6.8 percent), sales and use tax (6.5 percent) and corporate income tax (1.4 percent) all increased year-over-year. Additionally, total general fund revenues exceeded the official revenue forecast by 2.9 percent, or $936.3 million. The Secretary of Finance noted much of the surplus came from the volatile revenue sources of higher non-withholding payments and fewer refund liabilities, adding the commonwealth is committed to exercising caution with the volatile revenue streams to keep Virginia’s balance sheet healthy and resilient amid uncertain national economic conditions.

West Virginia’s fiscal 2026 general revenue collections were $5.69 billion, 7.0 percent above initial state estimates. Personal income tax collections, consumer sales tax collections, and severance taxes all finished the year ahead of forecast, while corporate net income tax collections came in below projections. The governor noted that because of the surplus, West Virginia will fund every obligation in “the back of the budget” including additional funding for roads and infrastructure, the Hope Scholarship, and other important priorities.

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