Early indications are most states and territories continued to see slow revenue growth through April, the tenth month of fiscal 2025 for most states (46 states will end their fiscal year on June 30th) and the largest month for tax collections for income tax states due to the tax filing deadline. In NASBO’s Fall 2024 Fiscal Survey of States, states projected fiscal 2025 revenues would be 1.9 percent higher than preliminary actual collections for fiscal 2024. Through April, most states appear to be meeting or exceeding these projections for another year of slow growth in tax collections but are not anticipating substantial end-of-year revenue surpluses.
When looking specifically at monthly tax collections for April, the picture is more mixed. Revenues coming in above projections were attributed to the continued strength of the state’s economy, accelerated purchases in response to future tariffs, and the implementation of new revenue sources. One reason given for April revenues coming in below projections included the extension of tax filing deadlines due to recent disasters; the IRS extends federal income tax payment and filing deadlines when certain federal disasters are declared and states that collect income tax usually follow suit. Another reason given for April revenues coming in below forecast was the impact of recent changes to the state’s tax structure and revenue systems. States also noted that tax collections for any given month can be impacted by timing and reporting adjustments. Examining individual revenue sources, most states reported personal income tax collections performed well in April, a number of states reported corporate income tax collections came in below projections, and the performance of other revenue sources including sales taxes was somewhat mixed.
Resources
Below is a compilation of recent press articles detailing states’ April revenue collections. In addition, please visit NASBO’s website for links to updated state revenue forecasts.
The federal government posted a $258 billion surplus in April, up 23 percent from last year, reflecting strong tax receipts and increased collections of import duties, according to the U.S. Treasury Department.
Arkansas’ April tax collections were $171 million, or 21 percent, less than last April. The decline was largely due to an extension of the state income tax filing deadline following a number of storms in recent months, according to the state Department of Finance and Administration. For the year, the state remains $52 million ahead of projections.
Georgia’s April tax revenues declined 5.8 percent compared to last year, due to an extension of the tax filing deadline to May 1 following hurricane-related disruptions. The governor’s office noted that preliminary May receipts were significantly stronger than last year. For the year, revenues are up $312.2 million, primarily driven by the reinstatement of the state’s motor fuel excise tax, which had been suspended for part of fiscal 2024.
Guam’s revenues through the first seven months of the fiscal year (Guam begins its fiscal year on October 1) were $683.3 million, or $52.1 million above projections, according to a report produced by the Bureau of Budget and Management Research.
Idaho’s tax collections through April were up 1.6 percent compared to last year but were $97.6 million below levels forecasted by the Joint Finance Appropriatons Committee. The slower revenue growth is partly due to recent legislation directing part of the sales tax from the general fund to other funds.
Illinois’ total state taxes through April have grown approximately $2.4 billion, or 5.5 percent, according to a report from the Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability. Personal income, corporate income, and sales tax all saw increases this April compared to last April.
Indiana’s April tax collections were approximately $51.2 million, or 2 percent, less than projections. The slower growth was largely due to corporate income taxes, which have failed to meet projections for eight out of the ten months in fiscal 2025.
Kansas’ April tax collections were $17.6 million, or 1.3 percent, more than forecast, with revenues from income and sales exceeding projections. While April revenues were above projections, they were down 5.9 percent compared to last year partly due to a three-year, $1.3 billion tax cut bill signed by the governor in June 2024.
Kentucky’s general fund receipts for March and April declined 6.4 percent compared to the same two months last year and are down 0.2 percent for the year. The state budget director noted the decline is attributable to the implementation of a new information technology system which delayed reporting and the income tax filing deadline being extended due to recent flooding.
Massachusetts’ April tax collections were 8.1 percent higher than April 2024 and 19.5 percent more than forecast. Most of the increase came in the non-withholding income tax category, which state officials attributed to the income surtax on high earners and capital gains taxes. For the year, revenue collections are 7.8 percent above last year and 5.5 percent above forecast.
Minnesota’s April tax collections were $391 million, or 11.4 percent, above the state’s latest forecast. The higher-than-expected revenues were largely due to individual income tax payments, with sales taxes and corporate tax payments coming in below projections. For the year, revenues are approximately 2.5 percent above forecast.
Mississippi’s tax collections in April were approximately 0.23 percent below estimate. Overall, April collections were 0.62 percent below the prior year; both individual income taxes and sales taxes were above the prior year, while corporate income tax collections were below. Year-to-date total revenue collections are 1.23 percent below fiscal 2024’s level.
Missouri reported that its April revenue collections increased 3.3 percent compared to last year. However, overall collections have declined 0.8 percent through the first 10 months of the fiscal year. Officials noted that revenue trends can vary due to timing and reporting adjustments.
New Hampshire’s April revenues were $35 million below estimate and for the year revenues are $41.6 million below forecast. The Department of Revenue Administration noted the main reason revenues are below forecast is a decrease in business tax revenue from the prior year.
Ohio’s income tax collections were down 8.5 percent in April compared to last year; however, for the year income tax collections are 3.2 percent above forecast. Auto sales collections were at a record high in April and were 14.4 percent above estimates, which the state budget director noted could reflect people buying vehicles to avoid tariffs. For the year, total receipts are 2.4 percent above forecast.
Pennsylvania reported its April tax collections surpassed estimates by 6.2 percent. The state’s Revenue Secretary noted much of the gains were due to personal income taxes being well ahead of projections. For the year, total collections are 0.8 percent ahead of forecast.
Tennessee’s April revenues were $117.6 million less than budgeted estimates and $316.9 million less than last year. The decline was largely due to less corporate taxes. The Department of Finance and Administration Commissioner said they are cautiously optimistic about improvements for the rest of the fiscal year and were encouraged that sales tax receipts were close to estimates.
Texas’ sales tax revenue totaled $4.24 billion in April, 7.1 percent more than April 2024. The state comptroller noted state sales tax collections were likely driven in part by businesses in the manufacturing sector ordering materials on an accelerated timeline to have inventory delivered before tariffs took effect.
Virginia’s April tax collections were $322.4 million, or 8.8 percent, above last year’s levels. Year-to-date revenues are up 6.3 percent compared to fiscal 2024 and are 0.8 percent ahead of forecast. The Secretary of Finance stated that strong revenue results for April indicate the Virginia economy continues to exceed forecast.
West Virginia’s April revenue collections were $643.8 million, 26.8 percent above estimate. The Department of Revenue attributed the revenue growth to higher-than-expected personal income tax payments; April personal income tax collections were 44.8 percent above estimate. Year-to-date general revenue tax collections are 5.4 percent more than the estimate.
Wisconsin’s April tax collections were down 6.3 percent compared to April of last year. Both individual income and corporate income tax collections saw declines, while sales taxes were up compared to last April. Year-to-date, tax collections are 3.2 percent more than fiscal 2024.
Looking forward to fiscal 2026, a number of states have recently revised their revenue forecasts downward, largely due to economic and federal uncertainty.